The Department of Energy (DOE) on Tuesday, March 3, assured the public that local fuel supplies are adequately sufficient despite escalating tensions in the Middle East, but signaled that pump prices are going to increase as global crude oil prices reach USD 80 per barrel.

Energy Secretary Sharon S. Garin, in a press conference, said that current oil inventories are more than three times the government’s minimum amount of 15 days, with some particular products being sufficient for up to two months.

“Sa supply po, walang problema,” Garin said, assuring the public that the Philippines won’t run out of supply even if global oil shipping disruptions continue for the coming weeks.

Under standard regulations, oil firms are required to keep at least an extra of 15 days of supply. However, the DOE said current finished product inventories show an average between 45 to 60 days, with kerosene stocks nearing about 70 days.

The secretary said that the department is working with oil companies nationwide to ensure that fuel remains available across all networks. She also noted that the Philippine National Oil Company (PNOC)  has been instructed to look for alternative sources aside from the Middle East.

Despite stable supply, Garin confirms that prices will increase in the coming days.

“I can bravely say that there will be an increase,” she said, citing rising logistics and insurance costs linked to the conflict and potential risks around the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil transit route.

Dubai crude oil prices are expected to increase to USD 80 per barrel as per predictions in recent trading, prompting the DOE to prepare for the likely price volatility within the week.

To shield consumers from the incoming price hikes, the department has instructed oil companies to stagger any price adjustments instead of implementing “one-time, big-time” increases.

“So instead of one-time, big-time, baka kausapan over a series of adjustments,” Garin said, explaining that spreading out price hikes could help mitigate incoming shocks to consumers.

She also noted that oil firms currently offer special discount programs that can range from PHP 1 to PHP 5 per liter, particularly for public transport vehicles. These price ranges may increase if the situation calls for it.

The DOE is on the lookout for Dubai crude prices as a potential trigger for further government intervention. Garin said that once crude reaches USD 80 per barrel, the department would inform the Department of Transportation to assess whether more assistance for public utility drivers may be necessary.

However, she clarified that there is no suspension of excise taxes under existing laws.

“The law does not indicate or there’s no provision in the NIRC allowing the suspension or even reduction of the rates,” Garin explained, noting that any move to recalibrate or suspend excise taxes would require Congressional approval.

She said discussions on possible tax adjustments are ongoing with economic managers, who must balance consumer relief with the government’s revenue needs.

Earlier in the day, President Ferdinand R. Marcos Jr. also supported the DOE’s statements by assuring the public that oil supply remains sufficient and indicated that the government is prepared to discuss possible excise tax measures if needed. He likewise directed agencies to promote fuel-saving and energy efficiency practices.

Garin reiterated that while global events remain unpredictable, the government is preparing for different escalation scenarios.

“We are hoping for the best, but we are preparing for the worst,” she said.

With inventories well above minimum requirements but crude prices trending upward, the key question now is whether staggered increases and targeted interventions will be enough to cushion Filipino consumers from sustained oil price volatility?

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