The Philippines has sufficient power supply in grids across the country that can last until June 2026, but reserve margins remain vulnerable to changes in demand, according to a study released by the Institute for Climate and Sustainable Cities (ICSC).

In its latest report: “Philippine Power Outlook: Reviewing the Adequacy of Power Supply for April to June 2026,” the ICSC said that the Luzon grid will have adequate reserves in the second quarter of this year, given the timely delivery of committed capacities during the first half of 2026.

It added that supply can be disrupted by changes in demand, delays in project completion, unplanned outages of major power plants, and constraints in the high-voltage direct current (HVDC) lines.

Jephraim Manansala, ICSC’s Chief Data Scientist and one of the authors of the report said that if additional power plants go offline beyond what is expected, this could further aggravate the power outlook and potentially lead to a more grave outcome, as available supply would be reduced.   

Power sources for the Luzon grid include Phase 1 of the Terra Solar project, with a total projected capacity of 1,785.7 megawatts (MW), and the Bugallon Solar Power Project, with a projected capacity of 530.4 MW, said the ICSC report.

At the same time, the Visayas grid is expected to maintain normal reserves primarily through HVDC imports of up to 450 MW from Mindanao and 250 MW from Luzon. “However, it is projected to experience yellow grid alerts in May, even with imports from across the country. This may be further aggravated if Luzon and Mindanao need to restrict exports as their reserve margins tighten,” said the ICSC report.

Meanwhile, sufficient existing generation capacity will allow Mindanao to maintain its normal reserve levels while exporting power to Visayas.

“The (Mindanao) grid’s tightest period is expected in late April, which may prompt possible reductions in HVDC exports when reserve margins narrow,” the report said.

The analysis is based on the 2025-2027 Weekly Power Outlook published by the National Grid Corporation of the Philippines in December 2024, with updates from Existing and Committed power plants as of November 2025 of the Department of Energy. ICSC adopted conservative assumptions in its findings, taking into account forced outages of about 700 to 800 MW.

“This grid alert highlights the structural vulnerabilities that persist in the Philippine power system; it demonstrates that power supply challenges are not solely driven by high summer demand but are fundamentally linked to chronic forced outages of baseload plants and inadequate reserve margins,” said report co-author and ICSC Senior Data Analyst Charles Jason Diaz.

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