Fuel prices are expected to roll back in the week of August 11, 2025, according to separate market monitoring by the Department of Energy (DOE) and Jetti Petroleum, Inc.

Rodela Romero, Assistant Director of the DOE Oil Industry Management Bureau, said rising OPEC+ supply estimated at 547,000 barrels per day from September and uncertainty surrounding US tariff policy are among the key factors influencing the expected price adjustments. She also cited confusion over potential US tariffs on buyers of Russian oil despite largely supportive US inventory data. 

Based on four days of trading, the DOE estimates a rollback of around PHP 0.25 per liter for gasoline, PHP 1.25 for diesel, and PHP 1.20 for kerosene. Final adjustments will depend on the outcome of today’s trading session.

Jetti Petroleum, meanwhile, projected a wider rollback range, estimating diesel prices to decrease by PHP 1.30 to PHP 1.50 per liter and gasoline prices by PHP 0.40 to PHP 0.60 per liter. Jetti president Leo Bellas said the additional increases in OPEC+ production and continued tariff uncertainties are the main reasons for this week’s lower crude oil prices. Expectations for a diplomatic end to the war in Ukraine and increased supply from Chinese refiners have also put downward pressure on Asian diesel and gasoline benchmarks.

According to Bellas, losses were limited by a larger-than-expected draw in US crude oil stockpiles, higher Saudi prices for Asia, and strong Chinese crude imports in July. He added that geopolitical risks and evolving US trade policy continue to cloud the broader demand outlook.

What do you think this latest price movement means for the local downstream oil sector and transport operations? Join the discussion below.

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