The Luzon Grid has sounded an early warning for the country’s power supply, with a yellow alert declared on March 5—the earliest in recent years. The Institute for Climate and Sustainable Cities (ICSC) has raised concerns that this may be a prelude to even more frequent power alerts as the dry season intensifies.
ICSC describes this year’s early occurrence as particularly concerning, as similar alerts in previous years were typically issued closer to peak summer months, such as April or May. In 2024, for instance, the first yellow alert was declared on April 16, significantly later than this year’s March 5 alert.
The early grid warning stems from two key factors: surging electricity demand due to rising temperatures and a wave of power plant outages. Several regions have already recorded a heat index exceeding 40°C, forcing households and businesses to ramp up their use of cooling appliances. This spike in consumption is straining an already fragile power system.
Meanwhile, the supply side tells a troubling story. Several major baseload power plants remain offline due to both planned and unplanned outages, further reducing available capacity. The unplanned outages include GNPD 1 (668 MW), Masinloc 1 (315 MW), SMC Limay 2 (134 MW), Pagbilao 1 (382 MW), and Sta. Rita 3 (260 MW). Planned outages, such as GN Mariveles 2 (316 MW) and Pagbilao 3 (420 MW), add to the grid’s vulnerability. Additionally, some baseload plants are operating at derated capacity, including Sual 1, Sual 2, and Ilijan 2.
Despite the National Grid Corporation of the Philippines (NGCP) projecting merely a 2-3% probability of grid disruptions from March 3-9, 2025, the early issuance of a yellow alert on March 5 signals a growing concern. “If a yellow alert can occur with only a 2-3% probability, imagine what will happen in a 70% probability scenario in April and May,” ICSC warned.
Last year, May 2024 saw 21 out of 31 days with either yellow or red alerts, largely caused by forced outages of coal-fired power plants. With NGCP forecasting a significantly higher probability of alerts from April to June 2025, the country could be facing even more frequent disruptions in the months ahead.
To mitigate these risks, ICSC is calling for immediate action, including:
Ensuring strict compliance with the Grid Operating and Maintenance Program (GOMP): This will help minimize unplanned outages and improve the reliability of power plants.
Timely commissioning of committed capacities: With 2,232 MW of additional capacity expected to come online in the first half of 2025, it is crucial to ensure these projects remain on track.
Implementing demand-side management programs: Encouraging energy-efficient practices during peak hours and shifting energy use to off-peak times can help balance supply and demand.
With temperatures rising and energy demand surging, stakeholders must act swiftly to prevent severe disruptions. The early yellow alert is a stark warning—without immediate intervention, Luzon may be in for a summer of power instability.
How can we collectively ease the strain on our power grid? Are there policy changes, technological solutions, or energy-saving habits that we should be adopting? Share your thoughts and ideas in the comments—let’s discuss how we can work towards a more reliable energy future.
