Fossil fuels could still account for as much as 55% of global energy consumption by 2050, even as governments pursue decarbonization goals, according to the latest Global Energy Perspective 2025 outlook published by consulting firm McKinsey & Company.

The annual report, produced by McKinsey’s energy practice and based on proprietary modeling of long-range energy trends, examines pathways for future energy demand, supply, technology adoption and emissions under multiple policy and macroeconomic scenarios.

“A major finding of this year’s analysis is that, depending on the scenario, fossil fuels are expected to account for about 41% to 55% percent of global energy consumption in 2050,” the report states.

Global primary energy demand is projected to grow by about 10% by 2050 under McKinsey’s “Continued Momentum” scenario, driven largely by consumption increases in India, ASEAN countries and Africa. New electricity demand from data centers and electrification also contributes to the growth, offsetting efficiency gains in advanced economies.

The study illustrated energy affordability, reliability, and emission reduction as a “trio of priorities that drive energy decision-making,” and notes that in many markets, affordability and security are increasingly carrying more weight than decarbonization.

“Energy affordability, reliability (including energy security at the national or regional level), and emission reduction continue to form a trio of priorities that drive energy decision-making,” according to McKinsey.

Despite continued renewable deployment, the outlook suggests fossil fuel demand will plateau only between 2030 and 2035 in slower-transition scenarios. Natural gas could see the strongest growth, partly by displacing higher-emission fuels like coal, which itself is projected to persist depending on regional energy needs.

McKinsey outlines three transition pathways—Slow Evolution, Continued Momentum and Sustainable Transformation—with projected global temperature increases by 2100 of 2.7°C, 2.3°C and 1.9°C, respectively. All remain above the 1.5°C ambition under the Paris Agreement.

“Global greenhouse gas emissions are still rising, and the journey toward decarbonization remains long,” the authors say.

The findings come amid heightened geopolitical uncertainty, shifting trade patterns, supply chain bottlenecks for grid equipment, and macroeconomic volatility — factors that McKinsey says are contributing to a slower energy transition across scenarios.

With fossil fuels projected to remain embedded in the global energy mix for decades, how should the Philippines balance energy security, affordability and climate ambition in its next round of power sector planning?

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