Luzon Grid at Risk as Coal Plants Falter -ICSC

With summer fast approaching, Luzon’s power grid is teetering on the edge of crisis, driven not just by seasonal demand but by the Achilles’ heel of its coal-fired baseload plants. The Institute for Climate and Sustainable Cities (ICSC), in a release issued today alongside its “Philippine Power Outlook: Reviewing the Adequacy of Power Supply from April to June 2025,” warns that forced power outages of these critical facilities could plunge Luzon into red alerts by June, spotlighting a systemic weakness that’s haunted the grid for years.

On March 5, the National Grid Corporation of the Philippines (NGCP) raised a yellow alert over Luzon when seven baseload coal plants went offline, rendering 2,495 megawatts (MW) unavailable. Three additional coal plants were also limping along at reduced capacity, further eroding the grid’s buffer. 

“Citing this year’s first yellow alert raised by the NGCP over the Luzon grid on March 5, ICSC noted that seven baseload coal power plants were on outage that day,” the press release states, underscoring how these failures amplify the region’s vulnerability.

Jephraim Manansala, ICSC’s Chief Data Scientist and co-author of the report, said that although elevated electricity demand during the summer contributes to power supply issues experienced in these months, forced outages of baseload power plants have constantly exacerbated the situation. 

The press release adds, “Power plant outages, especially unplanned ones, and plants running at a derated capacity, can severely disrupt the balance between supply and demand, significantly hindering the grid’s ability to meet the country’s growing energy needs – especially during peak demand hours.”

Luzon’s outlook is stark: normal reserves in April, possible yellow alerts in May, and red alerts looming in June, when reduced coal generation of around 842 MW is expected to tighten supply further. 

In contrast, Visayas is expected to maintain normal reserves through imports from Luzon and Mindanao, though yellow alerts are possible in June if Luzon cuts its exports. Mindanao, meanwhile, is projected to enjoy normal reserves and even export power, thanks to its ample supply. 

Luzon’s woes could still ripple outward—its planned 250 MW exports to Visayas via high voltage direct current (HVDC) interconnection may be curtailed in June, risking yellow alerts there too.

The recurring theme of coal plant outages isn’t new—ICSC’s annual reports since 2022 have flagged it as a persistent thorn in the Philippines’ energy side. But with demand climbing and coal’s reliability faltering, the stakes are higher than ever. 

The March 5 incident, where plants like GNPD 1 (668 MW) and Pagbilao 3 (420 MW) dropped out unexpectedly, serves as a wake-up call. As summer heat drives up consumption, Luzon’s dependence on these aging, outage-prone giants could spell blackouts unless swift action is taken.

The ICSC urges strict adherence to the Grid Operating and Maintenance Program (GOMP) to minimize unplanned shutdowns and calls for timely delivery of new, mostly renewable, capacities to bolster reserves. 

Can Luzon’s grid survive another summer of coal plant failures? Share your thoughts!

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