The Department of Energy (DOE) said the Philippines has sufficient fuel supply to last through the latter half of May, even as global oil market disruptions continue to push domestic prices upward.

“Our current inventory is steady compared to last week. As of today, the average inventory across all products is 50.42 days. This means our current supply is sufficient through the latter half of May,” Energy Secretary Sharon S. Garin said in a media briefing on Tuesday.

Breakdown data showed gasoline inventory at 57.58 days, diesel at 47.26 days, and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) at the lowest level of 33.10 days.

The DOE said it is coordinating with LPG companies to address tighter supply buffers.

“LPG currently has the lowest inventory at 33.10 days. We are working with LPG companies to consolidate orders and ensure a sufficient buffer stock,” Garin said. 

DOE confirmed that existing import orders for LPG already extend supply coverage through June.

Despite stable supply, the agency warned of continued upward pressure on fuel prices, particularly for diesel and LPG, driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

DOE estimates show diesel prices could rise by as much as PHP 11.80 to PHP 14.00 per liter, significantly higher than gasoline adjustments projected at PHP 1.00 to PHP 2.90 per liter. Kerosene may increase by PHP 1.30 to PHP 2.50 per liter. 

For LPG, consumers face sharper increases. The DOE projects an adjustment of PHP 17.00 to PHP 36.00 per kilogram, translating to an additional PHP 187.00 to PHP 407.00 for an 11-kilogram cylinder. 

The spike in LPG prices is linked to international benchmark prices.

“In April, this increased by almost $244 per metric ton – a 45% increase from March. We estimate this substantial increase to be equivalent to around PHP 17 per kg,” said DOE – Oil Industry Management Bureau (OIMB) Director Rino E Abad. 

Meanwhile, the DOE confirmed that incoming fuel shipments are expected to bolster supply. The government is set to receive 900,000 barrels of diesel this April in three tranches. 

Officials emphasized that while supply remains secure, price relief may not be immediate due to structural impacts of the ongoing conflict.

Secretary Garin noted that global oil infrastructure damage could delay price normalization, adding that previously imported and taxed fuel stocks also limit the short-term effect of potential policy interventions such as excise tax suspension. 

Separately, the DOE reported progress in other energy initiatives, including efforts to streamline net metering approvals to as fast as 10 days and the signing of two additional petroleum service contracts, bringing the total to 12 under the current administration. 

Energy efficiency measures are also being expanded across government, with flexible work arrangements already cutting fuel consumption by over 10% in participating agencies. 

With fuel prices expected to remain elevated despite stable supply, how should policymakers balance short-term consumer relief with long-term energy security?

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