The Philippines could produce up to 1.1 million barrels per day of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) by 2030, rising to 1.3 million barrels per day by 2050, under supportive policy and investment conditions, according to the ASEAN 2050 SAF Outlook Report.

The study, presented at the 8th Philippine Airport Modernization and Expansion Summit in Manila, positions the country as a potential net exporter of SAF despite its exposure to global fuel supply disruptions.

SAF, a renewable or waste-derived aviation fuel, can be used as a “drop in” fuel alongside conventional jet fuel, making it one of the most immediately deployable pathways to decarbonise flying.

For the Philippines, the report points to converging factors supporting a domestic SAF industry, including strong aviation demand, abundant agricultural residues, and a growing policy focus.

The ASEAN-wide modelling estimates SAF supply from agricultural and sustainable forestry biomass could reach around 7.5 million barrels per day in 2030 and as much as 8.5 million barrels per day by 2050 across key Southeast Asian markets.

Within that outlook, the Philippines is identified among countries with the largest potential surplus after meeting domestic demand, indicating a possible future role as an exporter to markets such as Japan, Singapore and South Korea.

The report cites available feedstocks such as coconut, cassava, corn, rice and sugarcane residues, but notes logistical challenges in aggregating and transporting biomass across the archipelago, underscoring the need for supply chain coordination to ensure cost efficiency and reliability.

It also identifies the Port of Cebu as one of ASEAN’s major potential export hubs for SAF.

The Department of Energy recently convened a 2026 SAF Policy Development Workshop and formed a multi-agency working group with the Civil Aviation Authority of the Philippines and other stakeholders to support industry development and reduce reliance on imported fuels.

“SAF is one of the few near term options that can cut aviation emissions using today’s aircraft and fuelling systems,” said Sachin Narang, Executive Advisor – Energy and Infrastructure at GHD. “The Philippines has strong underlying drivers, including growing aviation demand and access to agricultural residues, but converting that potential into real supply will depend on practical steps across the value chain, from feedstock aggregation and logistics through to investment frameworks and policy settings.”

The ASEAN 2050 SAF Outlook Report was developed by GHD with support from Global Affairs Canada through the Canadian Trade and Investment Facility for Development, implemented by Cowater International in association with the Institute of Public Administrators of Canada, with Boeing as knowledge partner supporting the ASEAN Secretariat.

What policy and investment moves are critical to turn the Philippines’ projected SAF capacity into actual export volumes?

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