Aurora Energy Research has launched its Philippines Nodal Market Forecast, which it says is the first bankable nodal-level price forecast available to investors, lenders, developers, and traders active in the country’s power market.

The subscription service is designed to provide an independent long-term market outlook to support investment decisions and project financing as the Philippines accelerates renewable energy development through the Green Energy Auction Program.

Aurora said the country is targeting 25 gigawatts of renewable energy capacity over the next decade, creating greater need for tools that can help market participants assess transmission constraints, curtailment risk, and nodal price volatility.

Nodal pricing refers to electricity prices at specific points on the grid, meaning project revenues can vary depending on location, transmission congestion, and system conditions.

The new forecast provides nodal price projections to 2050 across more than 200 nodes in Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao at monthly granularity.

It is underpinned by ORIGIN NODAL, Aurora’s proprietary power flow network model, and includes long-term curtailment forecasts by technology covering solar, wind, and baseload generation.

Curtailment happens when a power plant is able to generate electricity but cannot fully dispatch it due to grid limitations or system conditions.

Patrick Tan, Head of Wider Asia, APAC at Aurora Energy Research, said the Philippines is one of the most exciting power markets in the region, with a renewable energy pipeline requiring billions of dollars in investment over the coming decade.

“Our forecasts have already supported the financial close of several major renewable energy transactions in the country. Recent examples include Alba Renewables’ Solar Valley project, Vena Group’s Opus Paoay Solar PV Plant, and Verdant Energy’s acquisition of PHESI,” Tan said.

“The Philippines Nodal Market Forecast extends this track record into the country’s nodal market environment, giving market participants the transparent, independent analysis they need to assess risk and finance projects with confidence,” he added.

Aurora said the service can support market participants in assessing curtailment exposure, line rental costs, and debt sizing, or the process of determining how much debt a project can safely support based on expected revenues and risks.

The forecast is designed for project developers, energy traders, retail electricity suppliers, commercial banks, multilateral lenders, infrastructure debt funds, equity investors, infrastructure funds, offtakers, corporate power purchase agreement buyers, policymakers, and regulators.

Joseph Nocos of Emerging Power Inc. said the Philippine power market is becoming increasingly complex under nodal pricing, making credible long-term market intelligence more important for investors, developers, and energy users.

“Aurora’s nodal forecasting capability represents an important step forward in helping market participants better understand regional price signals, transmission constraints, and investment risk,” Nocos said.

Aurora said the forecast will be updated twice a year to reflect evolving policy, capacity, and demand fundamentals. Bespoke scenario analysis and sensitivity modelling will also be available to subscribers through its advisory team for specific transaction or investment requirements.

As nodal pricing reshapes project economics in the Philippine power market, will more granular forecasts become essential to financing the country’s next wave of renewable energy projects?

Follow Power Philippines on Facebook and LinkedIn or join our Viber community for more updates.